Lawton, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS64 KOUN 041119
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon
  across portions of western Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and
  dry conditions.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
  evening.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on
  Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Two main concerns today will be elevated fire weather in northwest /
western Oklahoma and a conditional risk for strong storms in
southwest Oklahoma / western north Texas. Both will be driven
largely by a dryline pushing into western / central Oklahoma.

Fire Weather: In northwest Oklahoma, where fuels are still in the
75th to 89th percentile, elevated RFTIs will be largely driven by
low RH values (low to mid teens). Winds will be a limiting factor
with speeds in the 8-13 mph range expected. Increasing cirrus will
also be a limiting factor.

RFTIs will be higher in southwest Oklahoma under the axis of
stronger winds (running from southwest Oklahoma into central
Oklahoma). That said, greenup will be a limiting factor in this
region.

Storms: CAMs suggest a few isolated storms initiating off the
dryline late this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in
southwest Oklahoma / north Texas. Environment looks to support
elevated storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. Capping
will be a limiting factor both in coverage and storm severity.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is forecast to enter northwest Oklahoma by midnight
Monday night, approaching I-44 by dawn, and pushing into southeast
Oklahoma by mid afternoon. This will bring both storm chances
(southeast Oklahoma) and much colder temperatures.

Cold: Tuesday`s cold front will result in a strong temperature
gradient across the forecast area, with highs in the 50s / 60s
across northern Oklahoma to highs in the 70s / 80s across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas.

This gradient will continue Wednesday as westerly surface flow helps
keep north Texas on the warm side. Northwest Oklahoma will have the
potential to see frost or freezing temperatures Wednesday night.
Latest NBM probs have us in the 30-50% ranges for reaching freezing
temperatures.

Storms: The front will serve as a focus for storms Tuesday afternoon
as it enters southeast Oklahoma. The environment would support
severe hazards. That said, there is a question whether storms
initiate within our southeast counties or are limited to areas south
and east of our forecast area.

Additional showers and a few storms will be possible across northern
Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave moves across
the central plains.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Synoptic uncertainty during the late week period remains high. In
broad strokes, we`re looking a mild Thursday followed by a warming
trend into the weekend. Most models keep us dry Thursday through
Saturday, but there are a few members that bring precipitation on
Saturday (low chances).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions remain well into tonight. An area of mid-to-high
clouds will stream through during the day, but it won`t be until
close to dark that thicker cloud cover moves in. Rain/thunderstorm
chances are minimal enough that nowhere warrants a PROB30 this
afternoon, but there is a chance for brief storms especially near
and east of LAW. Low-level wind shear will return tonight along
and southeast of I-44 ahead of a cold front, which will bring the
potential for MVFR ceilings to northern Oklahoma near daybreak
tomorrow.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  63  66  48 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         95  61  69  47 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  76  52 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           91  51  64  41 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     86  57  63  46 /  10  30  10  30
Durant OK         83  71  84  57 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04